Is the global vehicle market in recovery following the 2020 downturn? Data analysts GlobalData seem to think the market is firmly in recovery mode, according to their latest report.
Calum MacRae, GlobalData automotive analyst said, “April across all markets shows an 83.4 percent increase, not unexpected with COVID-19’s impact on sales.”
“Seasonally adjusted, the annualized rate of sales (SAAR) is 88.4 million. With April added, the global market recovery is on track.”
The recovery belies mixed trends regionally. New vehicle demand grows domestically, while in western Europe sales fall.
Furthest from SAAR’s 2018 base is Western Europe, while least impacted by the virus has been the US. Our market has exceeded expectations.
GlobalData noted the fiscal stimulus and fear of missing out has fueled the US market.
Depleted dealer stocks are at historic lows due to chip supply issues plaguing production.
GlobalData figures also show solid new vehicle demand in China, while western Europe has been slow to rebound.
April’s European new vehicle sales were about the same as the month prior, due to continuing COVID-19 movement restrictions.
GlobalData concluded, with 86.1 million light-vehicle sales for 2021, worldwide that will be 3.3 percent lower than 2019.
Don’t be surprised if it ends up much closer than the forecast, and if the chip shortage is straightened out, we could exceed 2019’s total.
Our own assessment is that pent-up demand, the high cost of used vehicles, and competition from rental car companies will drive new car sales even higher than the analysts have predicted.